Posted on Dec 22, 2021, 8:39 am
#1
Ray kurzweil (a futurist) got his predictions for the future late by a factor of 1.5. This is because he thinked that computational price efficiency was doubling every 12 months in 1999 but in fact it was doubling every 18 months at the time before moore's law flattening (he talks about this 12 month increase in his books). He got his predictions right but late by a factor of 1.5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law
Koomey law was discovered in 2010 and describes it
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2620185/koomey-s-law--computing-efficiency-keeps-pace-with-moore-s-law.html
Here is a video on this 1.5x increase.
The predictions for 2009 made by Ray Kurzweil are late also in 2014 using my 1.5 method (if you use this method you get 2014 for 2009) but not late in 2016, this is because moore's law was slowing down at that time, but it´s replacement it´s coming and it will get us back to the trendline because of the high demand there is for computation. (he also predicted moores law slowing and it ending around 2020 but this predicton doesn´t need the price efficiency information/data to be predicted)
-2035 Slow down aging (this was predicted in his book transcend as 2023)
-2044 androids (weak ai is not alive, strong ai is alive but weak ai can imitate human behavior also) (so this robots would need weak ai)
-2044 longevity escape velocity
-2044 i believe this could be the time we get a non-invasive procedure with nanobots as an alternative to LL and it woud be able to be done in all the bones
-2051.5 reverse aging (also in his book transcend as 2034)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koomey%27s_law
Koomey law was discovered in 2010 and describes it
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2620185/koomey-s-law--computing-efficiency-keeps-pace-with-moore-s-law.html
Here is a video on this 1.5x increase.
The predictions for 2009 made by Ray Kurzweil are late also in 2014 using my 1.5 method (if you use this method you get 2014 for 2009) but not late in 2016, this is because moore's law was slowing down at that time, but it´s replacement it´s coming and it will get us back to the trendline because of the high demand there is for computation. (he also predicted moores law slowing and it ending around 2020 but this predicton doesn´t need the price efficiency information/data to be predicted)
-2035 Slow down aging (this was predicted in his book transcend as 2023)
-2044 androids (weak ai is not alive, strong ai is alive but weak ai can imitate human behavior also) (so this robots would need weak ai)
-2044 longevity escape velocity
-2044 i believe this could be the time we get a non-invasive procedure with nanobots as an alternative to LL and it woud be able to be done in all the bones
-2051.5 reverse aging (also in his book transcend as 2034)
